Opinions on April 9 polled John Kerry ahead of George W. Bush at 45 percent to 42 percent. The numbers were a reversal from two weeks prior. It seems that the special Congressional Committees are asking some rather good questions that the public had not thought of: giving the White House the benefit of the doubt was perhaps too generous. The self-proclaimed Warrior President looks silly after the missing WMD – although I am generous here – and has stumbled after the 9-11 investigation. “There is nothing to bomb in Afghanistan; let’s bomb Iraq,” said his known-to-be-intelligent Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.

Such did-I-hear-right anecdotes are reaching the press from reliable sources who 1) have something to say and 2) will say it when it will hurt Bush most.

Bush is a divider. Either you like him or you do not. Those in the former category can disagree with him on issues or policy but can still vote for him. Those who dislike him really dislike him, leaving the Democratic Party united. Those swing voters or independents, so important in the 2000 election, are having to show their true colors under the Divider.

Polls are much maligned, but they are certainly more reliable than the gut feeling of the pundit. These feelings have less to do with guts than with wishes, hopes, fears and self-delusion interwoven with self-serving facts. So let me treat you to my gut feelings: I believe Kerry will win by at least four points. Of course, I was wrong about the 2000 campaign. I thought it would be very close, but that Bush would win. The skullduggery of the Supreme Court robbed me of some eloquent version of, “see, I told ya.”